There's a really obvious choice as to who's going to win the American League pennant. I don't even have to tell you the team that I'm thinking about and I'm sure with one look at the standings you could read my mind. However, it's really not as simple as it might look on paper.
The Yankees have a great team. Grossly overpaid, but great. They have easily the best offensive team in baseball with players like A-Rod, Tex, and of course, ladies man Derek Jeter. But this has been the case every year it seems. They always have had great offensive weapons, they just either were never able to put it together, or they didn't have the pitching to compliment their offensive prowess.
Enter C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. The Yankees now have the best team in baseball with one of the best starting line-ups in the field, one of the best starting rotations, and one of the best bullpens with Phil Hughes' emergence (amazing what $300 million can get you). So what's stopping them from walking through the American League playoffs to the World Series? 2 things:
1. A.J. Burnett has been atrocious in his last 7 starts with the exception of one brilliant performance where he pitched 7.2 innings of 1 hit ball against the Rays. Other than that game, Burnett's ERA has jumped from a 3.67 to a 4.29. That's tough to accomplish in the middle of the season after having pitched so many innings, unless something's going wrong. Which i
t is. The Yankees will need to see improvement on his part if they want to succeed in October.2. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Yankees have been unable to beat the Angels for as long as any Yankees fan can remember. Even this year they got swept by LA right before the all-star break in the middle of their run to the top of the standings. So, let's take a look at the standings as of right now:
AL East Leader- Yankees
AL Central Leader- Tigers
AL West Leader- Angels
AL Wild Card Leader- Red Sox
With these standings right now the Yankees would get the Tigers in the first round, and likely the Red Sox in the second round as the Angels have had serious troubles with beating the Sox in recent years. If this is the case, you can put the Yankees in the World Series in black permanent ink today.
Side note: For those who don't know, a team can't play another team from their division in the first round of the playoffs. So, if a division has a wild-card winner and a division winner in the playoffs, they could only meet in the second round regardless of records.
However, if the Red Sox or Rays don't win the Wild Card, and the Rangers do, the Yankees could be in some trouble. In that case they would play the Rangers in the first round, who they just lost a series to, and then likely the Angels in the second round. If this becomes reality, I believe the Angels would make the World Series. Moral of the story, the Yanks need to avoid the AL West, and at this point it looks like they will.
So... for now, with these standings where they are my prediction is...
American League Winner: New York Yankees
And Although I am confident in that pick, certain circumstances could certainly change the Yanks fate.
Keep in mind, Wild Card seeds have won more World Series then any other seed since the introduction of the Wild Card in 1995... for whatever that's worth. (look out for a possible Red Sox/Rangers/Rays vs. Giants/Rockies/Braves World Series).
Check back in tomorrow for my World Series winner.
Good analysis. One quibble, though: You can't really call the Yankees players "overpaid". Most of them are paid their market value. A more apt word would be "profligate". The Yankees simply can afford to pay more for their players than any other team in baseball which allows them to keep their best players as they reach their peak earning years and to out-bid the rest of the league for every player that they wish to add to their roster. Those contracts re-adjust the market every year making it even harder for anyone but the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, Phillies and (until Madoff) Mets to compete. It's killing the game and sapping the interest in 75% of major league cities. One question, though: How can the Detroit Tigers afford their payroll given what the economy has done to that city?
ReplyDelete4.29 is not an atrocious ERA. no, it's not good, but by no stretch of the imagination has burnett's pitching fallen apart
ReplyDeleteI didn't say it fell apart, I said he would have to get back to form if the Yanks want to win the World Series. I also didn't say the 4.29 ERA is atrocious, I said that his pitching in his last 7 games that has moved his ERA down to a 4.29 has been.
ReplyDeleteBurnett's performance of late is a real concern. A bigger concern- Mariano Rivera's injury.
ReplyDeleteZeus is absolutely correct about Burnett. His last several starts have to be a big concern for the Yankees' coaching staff. It usually takes 3 reliable high-end starters to get a team through the playoffs. Without Burnett, the Yankees only have Sabathia and Petitte and Sabathia has struggled in the playoffs. While Joba has had his moments, he can't be called "reliable". Of course, with an all-star at every position in the field and a strong bullpen and questionable pitching on every other AL contender the Yankees can't be too worried.
ReplyDeleteI think the big question for the Yankees is who starts game four in a playoff series? Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte will obviously starting the first three games, but in the playoffs the Yankees will be better off with Joba in the bull pen than the starting rotation. As of now the Yankees don't have a real fifth starter but if they can get some kind of consistency out of whoever their fifth starter is or make a waiver trade they would have a better rotation and bullpen for the playoffs. Another option would be starting Sabathia on short rest.
ReplyDeleteFirst, the waiver deadline for playoff eligibility was this past Monday so the pitchers you see on the roster is all that you will get. Second, with the many off days during the playoffs, it may be possible to get by with only 3 starters. I doubt the Yankees will do that, though. It is almost certain they will go with Joba as the fourth starter. There is zero need for a fifth starter. In fact, it is likely that Mitre will not even be on the playoff roster.
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