Thursday, April 1, 2010

Cramer: Final Four Preview (Part 2 of 2)

Yesterday we looked at Michigan State, and determined that it's boring to see a team in the final four that wasn't even the best team in their own conference (and by "we", I obviously mean "I told you"). Let's look at a similar situation, but this time let's look at the team from the Big East. Not only is the Big East much weaker than usual this year, but its success in the tournament this year is described solely by two words: "West Virginia". Every other team in the Big East underperformed in the eyes of many (though now those "many" might argue that they over- performed by even being allowed in the tournament).

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are the hardest team to talk about in a negative light. They've had very impressive tournament run, preceded by a Big East tournament crown in the bright lights of MSG. That being said, this team has some of the same qualities as Michigan State. They didn't have the best record in their own conference (Syracuse did, and SU beat West Virginia in Morgantown 72-81). WVU tied for second in their conference with two NCAA tourney underachievers: Villanova and Pittsburgh.

Additionally, the Mountaineers are going to get their starting PG back (unlike Sparty), but is there anyone who believes that Darryl Bryant can recover from a "broken foot" in under 2 weeks? Granted, Joe Mazzulla did a terrific job filling in for him against Kentucky. However, I wouldn't expect the defense of Duke to overlook him given their experienced players and coach.

Another important point against WVU is that everyone wanted to see Kentucky in the final four. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, Drew (Eric) Bledsoe... these are future NBA lottery picks. Everyone likes to see future NBA stars play on the biggest stage in college basketball (isn't that part of the reason a lot of us are in favor of the one year in college rule?) If Kentucky and WVU played again, Kentucky would not go 4-32 from three, and West Virgina would likely not go 10-23 from three.

I know I'm being nit picky here, and a little bit biased because I wanted to see UK play KU in the finals (didn't everyone?), but I don't think WVU is nearly as good a team as Kentucky was (or could have been).

Conclusion: West Virgina is as deserving a final four team as there is, but they're not the team a lot of people wanted to see play here. A Duke vs. Kentucky match-up would have gotten terrific ratings, and probably would have been a pretty damn good game too. However, WVU will likely produce just as good a game with Duke, but the excitement heading into it won't be nearly as high. Finally, Syracuse was the best team in the Big East, and it's hard to root for a team to win it all if they can't win their regular season crown (but WVU did win the Big East tourney so they're not quite as unimpressive as the Michigan State squad).

Conclusion 2: Duke will play Butler for the national title, and Duke will win 67-62.

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