Cramer: NBA Contenders and Pretenders

So we're 14 games into the NBA season (at least the Cavs are), and teams are starting to find out where they stand. Some teams came in with high expectations and haven't lived up to them (Washington); while others came in not expecting too much and have had great success (Milwaukee). So who are the championship contenders?

Although some of the contenders haven't exactly started out how they expected, I still think it's glaringly obvious which teams will be able to consistently win 7 game series and who won't. First let's start with the pretenders...

Pretenders
1. Phoenix Suns- I've had an opportunity to watch these guys play multiple times; and though I'm impressed, I still don't think they have what it takes to win it all. Their best player is a 6 foot point guard, which is never a good thing, and they don't have the defense to hang with the Lakers or Nuggets in a 7 game series. Although they have the best offense in the league statistically, their defense ranks 24th, which won't get it done. Phoenix fans are used to a great offense leading them to a good regular season but not very much playoff success... don't expect much more this season.

2. Atlanta- I'm taking a risk saying that Atlanta doesn't have a chance to win it all. They have some very good players in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford and company, but they don't have the swagger or greatness it takes to win it all. They're essentially the same team that got demolished by the Cavs in a 4 game sweep last year. They added Jamal Crawford, but he won't be the player to get them over the hump. Joe Johnson is a very good player, bordering on great, but he isn't there (nor do I think he ever will be). They will give any team a great series (like they did with Boston a few years ago) but they won't be able to pull it all out. Their defense ranks 14th, which isn't good enough. They'll slow down in the regular season when they start going out West on road trips and will likely end up with the 4 seed in the East.

3. Milwaukee- Really not much to say here. They're 7-4, but they don't have the talent to even win a playoff series. They'll be lucky to get a 7 or 8 seed. Brandon Jennings won't be able to maintain this play over an 82 season grind playing the minutes he is now. Sure, he played professionally last year, but he didn't play nearly as much. When Michael Redd gets back, they'll go back to the mediocre team they always are. Jennings won't dominate the ball as much, and teams will eventually defend him better.

So I've told you who I think doesn't have a shot to win it all, but who does? There are many more teams this year that I think can pull it off than usual, but I really think only 6 have a true shot to do it.

First let me give some props to Portland and Dallas. They both are out to hot starts, but I don't think they can win 4 7 game series. They aren't pretenders, but they won't pull it off (in my expert opinion). They'll be in the thick of things come April and May, but neither has the personnel to play in June. Sorry Greg, don't be sad.

Contenders
1. Lakers- Pretty obvious here. They won it last year and swapped Ariza for Artest and got Bynum back playing at an incredibly high rate. Only things that will hold them back are injuries or Artest's personality.

2. Celtics- They got Garnett back and are a juggernaut on offense when they put their minds to it. Their defense is always stellar (ranked #1). The only thing holding them back is their age (which likely will hold them back).

3. Cavs- They won't be the same team in April after Danny Ferry shakes up the roster by the trade deadline, but either way they'll have LeBron and Mo Williams which will give them a chance to win it all. Their offensive woes in the 2nd and 3rd quarter may hold them back, along with their inability to hold a lead. If they can get one more offensive threat, they may be the favorites along with the Lakers.

4. Nuggets- Great offense, great player (Melo), great bench (JR Smith), great closers (Billups and Melo), and good defense... what else does it take? We'll see if they have what it takes to beat LA this year (don't forget they likely would have last year if Ariza hadn't been in town for the Lake Show).

5. Magic- They haven't been the same team this year without Turkoglu and with Howard not being great, but they'll get it together come playoff time and will be a scary opponent for any team in the league. Rashard is back, and if Nelson is healthy they have everything it takes to bring home the trophy.

6. Spurs- They haven't been great so far, but they have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, and some decent role players. I wouldn't call them a favorite by any means, but I wouldn't put it past Duncan and Popovich to win one more.

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